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Chart 1


Overall team rankings by forecast skill, as well as skill by date of initial forecast.

Top plots: Forecast skill measured by CRPS and log skill. Lower values indicate better predictions. Both score probabilistic forecasts, but log skill penalizes observations outside expected range much more heavily.

Lower plot: Forecast skill over time at each site. Not all teams submit multiple forecasts.

Tip: Mouse over a color to highlight the scores of one a team